Tourism in the Canary Islands: forecasting using several seasonal time series models

This paper deals with the analysis of the number of tourists travelling to the Canary Islands by means of using different seasonal statistical models. Deterministic and stochastic seasonality is considered. For the latter case, we employ seasonal unit roots and seasonally fractionally integrated models. As a final approach, we also employ a model with possibly different orders of integration at zero and the seasonal frequencies. All these models are compared in terms of their forecasting ability in an out‐of‐sample experiment. The results in the paper show that a simple deterministic model with seasonal dummy variables and AR(1) disturbances produce better results than other approaches based on seasonal fractional and integer differentiation over short horizons. However, increasing the time horizon, the results cannot distinguish between the model based on seasonal dummies and another using fractional integration at zero and the seasonal frequencies. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

融合子带方差和FD变换的长记忆过程仿真

根据长记忆过程小波变换的频带分割及其去相关性，提出了“子带方差”的概念，并给出了在长记忆条件下的估算公式。在此基础上，构造了一种具有扩展记忆功能的FD变换，该变换可以将一个无记忆的、独立同分布的随机序列转化为具有指定长记忆特性的随机序列，由此实现对长记忆过程的仿真。对仿真序列进行模型比较和参数估计证实，基于子带方差的FD变换可以有效地扩展和控制随机序列的记忆性。     

人性的自审意识与自我救赎欲——评铁凝的新作《大浴女》

一个社会的人类文化心理的行进总是比经济基础的变革要缓慢的多 ,年近 4 0的尹小跳在文化心理上仍然保留着以前日常生活的痕迹。《大浴女》通过对女性的或社会学意义或宗教意义上的记忆 ,负疚感、窥视欲、自我救赎欲的审视 ,显示了作家独特的对女性生存和女性命运的关照方式     

集成电路的计算机辅助测试

以9001测试系统为例，介绍计算机在集成电路测试技术中的应用及测试原理，以及现代测试中利用软件进行数据处理，提高测试精度的一些方法。     

An oscillatory neural network and dynamical associative memory

Ａｒｔｉｆｉｃｉａｌｎｅｕｒａｌｎｅｔｗｏｒｋｈａｓｒｅｃｅｎｔｌｙｒｅｃｅｉｖｅｄｃｏｎｓｉｄｅｒａｂｌｅａｔｅｎｔｉｏｎｆｒｏｍｖａｒｉｏｕｓｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈｆｉｅｌｄｓ．Ｍｕｃｈｅｆｏｒｔｈａｓｂｅｅｎｍａｄｅｔｏｗａｒｄｓｔｈｅｕｎｄｅｒｓｔ...     

谈大学英语听力课中多种能力的培养

针对听力课信息来源广泛，练习性强的特点，提出在不同的学习阶段对学生分别进行听读结合，听说结合，听写结合，视听结合的训练，以确保学生在初级阶段打好基础，中级阶段勇于表达，高级阶段扩大视野，提高层次。强调培养学生的记忆能力，理解能力，表达能力和良好的英语思维能力，并提出了具体的实施步骤和范例。     

Volterra series based predistortion for broadband RF power amplifiers with memory effects

RF power amplifiers(PAs)are usually considered as memoryless devices in most existing predistortion techniques.However,in broadband communication systems,such as WCDMA,the PA memory effects are significant,and memoryless predistortion cannot linearize the PAs effectively.After analyzing the PA memory effects,a novel predistortion method based on the simplified Volterra series is proposed to linearize broadband RF PAs with memory effects.The indirect learning architecture is adopted to design the predistortion scheme and the recursive least squares algorithm with forgetting factor is applied to identify the parameters of the predistorter.Simulation results show that the proposed predistortion method can compensate the nonlinear distortion and memory effects of broadband RF PAs effectively.     

蒸发波导环境中基于ZMNL的海杂波仿真

针对海上蒸发波导环境中雷达目标的识别,提出了蒸发波导中基于零记忆非线性变换(ZMNL)的海杂波实现方法。该方法确定了海杂波K分布参数与蒸发波导高度间的关系,可得到不同蒸发波导高度、不同探测距离处的相关K分布杂波序列。给出了应用该方法产生杂波的具体步骤,仿真实验证明了该方法用于蒸发波导中海杂波建模的有效性。     

基于Delphi扫描线技术的快速图像处理

传统的图像处理一般采用像素点赋值的方法,处理速度极慢,对于大型图像几乎无能为力,而Delphi扫描线方法是对图像的每一行进行扫描,获得各像素的内存地址.这种内存操作比常规的像素点赋值效率高很多,从而可以大大提高大型位图图像的处理速度.     

词汇策略的使用与词汇知识水平的相关探究

旨在探讨二语学习者的词汇策略倾向与其词汇知识之间的关系。对非英语专业大学二年级学生的词汇水平测试和词汇学习策略问卷调查结果表明：（1）学习者词汇策略的认知倾向对词汇知识水平有预测作用：词汇水平较高的同学更多地使用认知策略和元认知策略，而词汇水平相对较差的同学较多地依赖机械记忆；（2）二语学习者还没有摆脱母语知识系统的束缚，还需要进一步努力构建二语词汇知识系统。